Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

rsimeon

Going Once, Going Twice And Not Sold

.A very interesting question was raised this to week as to what exactly is the best and most accurate way of determining the strength of the property market? For years I have argued that the current methodology is both flawed and lazy. For example in Sydney we have approximately 637 suburbs in 38 local government areas, it would make much more sense if the property data aggregators compiled data based on the local government areas to provide a more exacting position than say just Sydney.

Misleading property auction figures ‘put buyers at risk’ “Inflated and inaccurate auction clearance rates may push … more »

rsimeon

The RBA Has One Hell Of A Headache

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Without a doubt one of the overwhelming characteristics of the Mosman market was the insatiable desire of residents to trade in the market. Today, it is instinctively clear that this desire has been lost as a result of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as residents re-calibrate their lifestyles and requirements. For example, in 2012 out of 52 weeks there were on 33 occasions more than 100 houses on the market. In 2013 Mosman has only broken the 100 mark on just four occasions which explains why so few houses are on the market. I did a comparison for house sales in Mosman for 2013, 2012 and 2007 (the golden market … more »

rsimeon

Is Mosman A Case Of Mistaken Identity?

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Oh dear – the lunatics are trying to run the asylum! Mosman has always had its individual niche suburbs – Balmoral (not Balmoral Beach), Clifton Gardens, Mosman Bay and Beauty Point. Although at the end of the day it is Mosman 2088 so I see the attempt to subdivide Mosman into five new identities is nothing more than bureaucracy gone mad.

Further confirmation is the media outlets are having a field day at the expense of Mosman – Five uneasy pieces as Mosman faces split – up which makes it sound like an ugly divorce. more »

rsimeon

Is There A Minister In The House?

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A fascinating week with the Abbott government establishing its Commission of Audit in order to return the budget back to surplus which will require wide – ranging cuts.  Return to budget will be ‘a herculean task’, says Deloitte Access Economics so the leading question then is where are these “rivers of gold” that the government will release in order to get the budget back to surplus?

I can’t see this happening anytime soon given these new cuts (whatever they will be) won’t be introduced until after the next election. The Abbott government’s preferred approach is to submit their reforms (cuts) … more »

rsimeon

Why We Have Less Property On The Market

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The problem (as I see it) with commentaries about the Australian property markets is the diverse opinions about which way it’s headed. I see the main hurdle being interest rates, not a booming market, given the former is actually the handbrake on property prices. Prepare for interest rates rising sooner than expected if America raises their debt ceiling, it could impact funding costs in the Australian home loan market. It was pointed out that should average variable interest rates return to normal levels of 7 per cent borrowers would be slugged an extra $755 million of extra repayments collectively. The … more »

rsimeon

2014 May Well Be A Defining Year

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In the modern era we have made confusion an art – form given our tendency to over analyse, which in turn leads to over dramatized responses. The highway of fear is the shortest route to defeat. Over the past week we have seen some very interesting observations namely: Rate cuts revised where analysts now have all but ruled out another cash rate reduction in 2013. Global growth forecasts for 2014 tend to fluctuate between 3 and 4 per cent so everyone will be looking for the stand out economies. Many are suggesting that Australia may very well be a star performer.

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rsimeon

Move Along, Nothing Happening Here – Yeah Right

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When one blogs as often about the Sydney property market as we do (thirteen years now) – all I can say is that the current media reporting is simply lazy and embarrassing. The Sydney real estate market consists of approximately 650 niche suburbs yet for some strange reason they are all thrown in together to represent what’s supposedly happening in the marketplace. I was watching a news bulletin this week which showed a map of where the bush fires were and this reminded me of the Sydney property market where some areas are literally on fire and others performing well however – not out of control.

Today, we have no instant … more »

rsimeon

The Great Property Conspiracy Theory

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I have no doubt that Sydney’s property markets are set for rapid growth at the lower price ranges which will flow to the top – end, however it will be a trickle not a tsunami. They say: when you make a mountain out of a molehill, don’t expect anyone to climb up to see the view. You see the view is otherwise known as an opinion with the voice coming from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Sydney Morning Herald conveniently published this week – How to spot a housing bubble.

When looking at the view of our local market look no … more »

rsimeon

Property Prices Are Determined By Influence

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This week Louis Christopher from SQM Research declared “Sydney though is turning into a beast unto itself. We have a strong conviction that the ABS will record 15% to 20% house price rises next year for that city. Such a rise will create a large dilemma for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), especially if the national economy is running below average growth.”

What a bold announcement given he left out what will influence this price proliferation? Even more remarkable is that Sydney consists of approximately 650 suburbs – so what a huge call! This then prompted the dialogue to move to the words “boom and bubble.” … more »

rsimeon

Australia Has Change But No Holiday

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What a difference a week makes given Australia has a change of leadership and – woe and behold – all of Australia’s problems are removed. If only it were that easy although consumer confidence is a key factor where business confidence surges in August: NAB. National Australia Bank’s (NAB) monthly business survey, conducted prior to the September 7 federal election, showed business confidence rose nine points to six, up from the -3 in August 2013.

NAB chief economist Alan Oster said while an August rate cut and lower dollar may have helped sentiment “it appears more important were political factors – including an … more »

rsimeon

Buyers Aren’t Seasonal – Vendors Are

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If the current federal election is anything to go by – a pivotal role that has emerged has been the aggression expressed on social media – yes our new digital economy. This in – turn has led to the most combative and often under – handed strategies ever seen before on the political arena. If this is what is now to be the new norm – the next three years will be very interesting.

In the run – up to this Saturday’s election the economy has rightfully taken front and centre where it should be noted that the Australian economy is performing very well when compared to other western economies. more »

rsimeon

The New Digital Economy to Spark Australia

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It would be fair to say that the vast majority are well and truly over all the policies on-the -run that our politicians keep throwing at us on a daily basis. Nearly all will never see the light of day (well not in our lifetimes anyway) which would explain why the general public are over the electioneering over promising and generally taking electorates for fools.

Unemployment is an obvious concern with the three M’s struggling – manufacturing, mining and motor vehicles all facing challenges in the short – term. Of great concern and this, in my opinion, should be priority number one although it barely rates a mention out on the … more »