Posts Tagged ‘Global Financial Crisis’

rsimeon

Time for Governments to Roll Out Incentives

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I was reading a piece this week at MacroBusiness where it was pointed out that it has been 24 years since we went through the global recession. Then 8 years later we went into the Tech Wreck, then 8 years after that we hit the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and now 8 years on we have hit Brexit – or as Australians will soon call it Bex – it (as it will probably cause some major headaches.)

Whilst Australia continues to post some very positive data, we need to pay closer attention to the data post June 30 as we now enter a period of uncertainty. Having said that, this should … more »

rsimeon

How to manipulate property market machinations

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The biggest challenge facing the Sydney residential property market is successfully calling the market accurately as against some who pluck figures out of the air with astonishing aplomb. My preferred guide is the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) capital city indexes for Established Houses which is released on a quarterly basis – it’s all about measuring price movements over time.

So I struggle when I see BIS Shrapnel noting that Sydney house prices have soared 45 per cent since 2009 although I remain somewhat confused as we need to add further perspective by taking into account that house prices fell approximately 20 to 30 per cent during the Global Financial Crisis … more »

rsimeon

Are you a Vertical or Horizontal analysis type?

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Most would answer that they are not sure given they apply a number of metrics whilst attempting to draw a conclusion on a particular subject. Real estate is a classic example given there are so many suggested formulas that can be applied to draw a conclusion yet there is no stand – out determination process.

I was asked this week what is the best method within the real estate industry to better understand the market machinations as to exactly what is going on – and do I look at the markets from a vertical or horizontal position? The answer to that would be both given on a weekly basis I look … more »

rsimeon

It’s the safe money that’s in property

A question that I have been asked on more than a few occasions has been what are some of the real game changers that I have seen in my time selling real estate?  My first response is the obvious how long have we got? Although the greatest innovation for me was when the newly elected Labor government back in 2007 required the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to be transparent (for the first time) by publishing the minutes immediately following their last meeting. What we seem to forget  (all too quickly) is that prior to this all the RBA would do was advise that the cash rate had either remained … more »

rsimeon

Cold facts needed for red – hot property

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For some very strange reason property commentators are struggling to differentiate between the investor property market and the household property market. Treasurer Joe Hockey was so right when he commented this week “It is just an easy mantra for international commentators and for analysts based overseas to say ‘well there’s a housing bubble emerging in Australia’; it is a rather lazy analysis because fundamentally we don’t have enough supply to meet demand.” On a personal note I have been saying this for the best part of twelve months now given the figures provided are a bundle of property sales where the demographic markets are not broken down – simply because … more »

Why Australia urgently needs a housing debate

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It’s always refreshing to read an intelligent report so when the Centre for Independent Studies released this week Eight Housing Affordability Myths by Dr Stephen Kirchner we finally get to see why, Australia’s housing debate is long overdue. The only problem that comes from such a precise paper is that it will require government intervention which, as most would agree, is where the problems start. They just don’t get it – if they did, we would not have the glaring problems that we see today. Some of the interesting points raised are:

  • Housing consumption and investment are both taxed and subsidised by all levels of … more »

rsimeon

Real estate markets: plenty of dare and little truth

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There goes another financial year where for all intents and purposes profits should have been up and back to pre-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) levels. Some a step further by posting all time record profits given their respective graduation from the GFC together with the valuable lessons learned, which were then adopted then executed.

Having said that we should closely look at the Reserve Bank’s four prevailing views on the property market as each and every point raised is not just a concern but more of a forecast which in all probability will eventuate. The most important message from … more »

rsimeon

Is the public auction system – going – going – gone?

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The practice by unethical real estate agents to – ‘quote them low and watch it go’ could very well finally be a thing of the past – well in Queensland anyway (for starters). Governments from all political persuasions have struggled for decades to establish a best practice platform for the real estate industry.

Queensland is close to implementing the new legislation although they are struggling at the last hurdles given they are seeking that agents are not permitted to provide any price guides. The reforms have now been altered to permit agents providing a price guide on the internet. This just keeps getting dumber and dumber given this whole process could … more »

rsimeon

Why property bubbles are like the Loch Ness monster

So what do they have in common you might ask? Just like Nessie they are rarely sighted (if at all) when even then they are just suggested as possibly looking like one. In Australia we have had just the occasional sighting which generally fails the credibility test when the facts are more closely examined.

The truth is that very few people in Australia have actually ever seen a property bubble given most can’t even define what exactly one is or does. I was sitting down this week with my business colleague Steve Patrick and had a deep debate about what actually a property bubble is?

Given that we have both been selling … more »

rsimeon

The Start Of The Public Land Sell – Off?

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If you are confused with what’s presently happening within the Australian economy you’re not alone. Already in 2014 we have seen the announcements that motor vehicle manufacturing in Australia is closing down and this week Qantas announced that a further 5,000 jobs will be cut by the carrier. It’s abundantly clear that since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Australian businesses are adopting a new mandate: Do something. Either lead, follow, or get out of the way!

Yesterday we saw another shock announcement with CAPEX drops in December quarter which in all probability confirms that Australian businesses are more than cautious in 2014 – which … more »

rsimeon

The RBA Has One Hell Of A Headache

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Without a doubt one of the overwhelming characteristics of the Mosman market was the insatiable desire of residents to trade in the market. Today, it is instinctively clear that this desire has been lost as a result of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as residents re-calibrate their lifestyles and requirements. For example, in 2012 out of 52 weeks there were on 33 occasions more than 100 houses on the market. In 2013 Mosman has only broken the 100 mark on just four occasions which explains why so few houses are on the market. I did a comparison for house sales in Mosman for 2013, 2012 and 2007 (the golden market … more »

rsimeon

No Boom But No Gloom

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By all accounts when one reads the news our property markets are apparently booming? As they say if you want to make a mountain out of a mole – hill just keep adding dirt. It’s very easy to use the boom word just as its very easy to use the word bust. What the vast majority forgets is that real estate is not an exacting science given if it’s such a great time to buy now then why did the markets fail to react from 2008 to 2010 when prices dropped by 30 per cent?

Sydney’s property bubble hysteria is unfounded where … more »